Jeff Currie warns that China is exploiting a record crude‑diesel margin. The observation was made in a video posted on 8 September 2026 at 2:15 AM EDT, where Currie appears as a representative of Abaxx Technologies and as the founder of Real Macro. By opening the discussion with the current market dynamics, he sets the stage for a deeper look at how a single country’s refining power can reshape price structures.
Currie explains that China’s massive refining capacity gives it a unique ability to influence the global price relationship between crude oil and diesel. Because the country can process large volumes of crude, it can absorb supply and keep crude prices lower than they might otherwise be. At the same time, the same capacity creates strong demand for diesel, pushing diesel prices higher. This dual effect produces a record margin between the two fuels, a situation Currie describes as “underrated” in its impact on worldwide crude product pricing. The record margin, he notes, is not a fleeting anomaly but a structural outcome of China’s scale and its strategic use of refining assets.
In the same commentary, Currie turns to the United Arab Emirates, pointing out that the nation is now positioned as an energy producer after its exit from OPEC. The shift, according to Currie, marks a notable change in the regional energy landscape, moving the UAE from a traditional OPEC role toward a broader production stance. This repositioning could affect how the UAE engages with global markets and how it balances its own supply decisions. By linking China’s margin to the UAE’s new status, Currie highlights a broader theme: the evolving dynamics of major energy players are reshaping the balance of supply, demand, and pricing across the sector.