Asia's oil market is already operating at minimum working levels, with Europe likely to follow within a month and the US potentially at risk by July, according to Carlyle Group strategist Jeff Currie, the long-time former head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs (per CNBC).
What Currie said
Speaking at a UBS wealth conference in Singapore in late May 2026, Currie warned that headline global inventory numbers can be misleading because much of the oil stored worldwide cannot actually be used: a large share is needed to keep pipelines, terminals and refineries operating safely. The usable buffer, he argued, is now far thinner than the official stockpile data suggests (per CNBC and Hellenic Shipping News).
"Europe, give it about another month, and look for July being a problem in the U.S.," Currie said, framing Asia as the leading indicator (per CNBC).
He also pointed to "explosive prices on products" in Singapore, the region's main refining hub. While jet-fuel cracks have eased, diesel margins have surged past jet, signalling that the supply squeeze has shifted along the barrel rather than disappeared (per CNBC).
Why the squeeze is happening
Global oil markets have been under strain since the outbreak of the Iran war earlier in 2026, after disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz sharply curtailed energy exports from the Middle East. The chokepoint normally handles around a fifth of global oil trade, and any sustained interruption forces refiners to draw down working inventories in Asia and Europe (per CNBC and Energy News Beat).
Currie said the only durable fix is to bring more physical molecules back to market: "The only way you solve this problem is to increase the availability of molecules," with reopening the Strait of Hormuz as the most important lever (per CNBC).
What it means for the UAE
For the UAE and other Gulf producers, Currie's warning has two implications. First, persistent product-market tightness, especially in diesel, supports refining margins for regional players and keeps pressure on downstream pricing. Second, the strategist's framing of absence rather than scarcity reinforces the call from Gulf producers for stable, navigable shipping lanes (per Energy News Beat).
Market context
Currie's comments add to a string of warnings from energy analysts that the visible inventory cushion in OECD countries overstates true flexibility. With Asian buyers already drawing down to operational minimums and Europe close behind, traders are watching weekly refined-product stockpile data and Hormuz shipping flows closely for early signs of stress carrying through to US balances by mid-summer (per Hellenic Shipping News and CNBC).
