DMCC unveiled its Future of Trade 2026 report today in Dubai. The study says global trade will stay resilient for the next two years but will be reshaped by artificial intelligence, tariff volatility, resilient supply chains and a race for critical minerals and clean‑energy infrastructure. More than four in five business leaders expect slow growth and ongoing supply‑chain disruption.
AI drives trade growth
AI‑related goods – such as semiconductors, servers and data‑centre hardware – expanded by more than 20% in the first half of 2025, far outpacing the under‑4% growth of non‑AI products. Although these items represent only about 15% of global trade by volume, they generated 43% of total merchandise trade growth during that period.
The report highlights that AI‑related goods accounted for a disproportionate share of trade expansion, growing five times faster than non‑AI goods. This shift signals that future competitiveness will hinge on technology adoption as much as on cost or geography.
Tariffs and critical minerals reshape outlook
Nearly 20% of global merchandise imports now face tariffs or similar restrictions, up from 12.6% a year earlier. Around 12% of surveyed executives foresee a worst‑case scenario driven by escalating conflict, tariffs, sanctions and financial fragmentation, while only 4% anticipate a best‑case outcome.
Merchandise exports are projected to slow to 1.9% in 2026, down from 4.6% in 2025, before a modest rebound to 2.6% in 2027. Services exports are expected to keep outpacing goods. South‑South trade accounts for roughly 35% of global trade, overtaking North‑North flows. The report launches in London before follow‑up events in Dubai and Singapore, and the full study can be accessed at www.futureoftrade.com.
Frequently asked questions
What impact will AI‑related goods have on global trade growth by 2026?
The DMCC Future of Trade 2026 report says AI‑related goods, which make up about 15% of global trade by volume, generated 43% of total merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2025, expanding over 20% versus under 4% for non‑AI products.
How much of global merchandise imports are affected by tariffs according to the DMCC report?
The report finds that nearly 20% of global merchandise imports now face tariffs or similar restrictions, up from 12.6% a year earlier.
What are the projected export growth rates for goods in 2026 and 2027?
Merchandise exports are projected to slow to 1.9% in 2026, down from 4.6% in 2025, before a modest rebound to 2.6% in 2027, according to the DMCC study.
What share of global trade is now accounted for by South‑South flows?
South‑South trade now accounts for roughly 35% of global trade, overtaking North‑North flows, as highlighted in the DMCC Future of Trade 2026 report.
Why does the DMCC report say AI will reshape competitiveness in trade?
The report notes that AI‑related goods grew five times faster than non‑AI goods, showing that future competitiveness will hinge on technology adoption as much as on cost or geography.
